In that scenario, the CER said global oil prices will likely remain above US$60 per barrel all the way to 2050, with Canadian oil production declining by just 22 per cent. The regulator also modelled two other scenarios - one in which Canada achieves net-zero by 2050, but large developing countries like China and India move at a slower pace. “Because there will be less demand for hydrocarbons, producers of hydrocarbons will need to be increasingly efficient at managing their costs in order to remain competitive.” "In a net-zero world, not only for Canada but for the rest of the planet, the supply and demand dynamic that we see today will be very different in the future," Canada Energy Regulator chief economist Jean-Denis Charlebois told reporters Tuesday. The report concludes that as a result of these low prices, Canadian crude oil production would fall to 1.2 million barrels per day by 2050, 76 per cent below 2022 levels. That would prompt a collapse in global oil prices, to as low as US$35 per barrel by 2030 and US$24 per barrel by 2050, it says. In that scenario, in which domestic and global climate policy successfully reduces the world's emissions to net-zero, the Canada Energy Regulator says global fossil fuel use will drop by 65 per cent from 2021 to 2050. It paints a picture of a dramatically different energy sector, especially if the world is successful in reaching its 2050 climate targets and holding global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. The report, released Tuesday, marks the first time the regulator has presented a long-term outlook for Canadian energy using net-zero as a baseline. New modelling from the Canada Energy Regulator suggests Canadian oil production will plummet by 2050 if the world achieves its Paris target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions within that time.
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